AI load just repriced the grid

Hi there,

AI/industrial load is repricing the grid—PJM hit the cap and EIA lifted demand. Buyers want firm + flexible MW now: 24/7 geothermal, hyperscaler-backed LDES, and factory-integrated 20 MWh BESS that shave months off EPC. Founder play: ship the AI-spec—grid-forming storage, DR/VPP monetization, and standardized BoS kits that cut crane picks and days to COD.

🔦 Signals Worth Monitoring

🔨Headline: Capacity auctions hit price cap as PJM & other U.S. grids face surging load

What Happened: PJM’s 2026‑27 capacity auction cleared at $329.17 per MW-day; prices jumped nearly tenfold from $28.92/MW‑day to $269.92/MW‑day for 2025‑26. Load growth from data center and industrial demand is outpacing supply, driving up reserve prices and forcing delays of coal/gas retirements.

Why Founders Should Care: Rising capacity prices reward flexible loads and demand response. Founders building software/hardware that lets businesses curtail or shift load during grid stress can earn revenue sharing and help utilities avoid infrastructure upgrades.

🔨Headline: EIA forecasts faster than expected U.S. power demand; solar grows 33% as gas generation declines

What Happened: The US EIA’s Sept. 9 Short Term Energy Outlook predicts electric power generation will grow 2.3% in 2025 and 3% in 2026—well above earlier forecasts—because data centers and industrial demand are surging. Utility-scale solar output is forecast to rise 33% in 2025, while high gas prices are expected to cut gas-fired generation by 3%.

Why Founders Should Care: Rapid load growth and declining gas output signal opportunities for storage developers. Founders should plan for grid congestion and interconnection delays and look at hybrid solar plus storage projects to capture high prices when gas plants back down.

🔨Headline: California to build 500 MW geothermal plant for AI datacenters

What Happened: Controlled Thermal Resources and Baker Hughes signed definitive agreements to develop up to 500 MW of baseload geothermal power at the Hell’s Kitchen project in Imperial County, California. The staged project will provide 24/7 clean energy for hyperscale data centers and AI clusters; Baker Hughes will provide high-temperature drilling and digital services.

Why Founders Should Care: Geothermal’s baseload reliability (capacity factors ≈98 %) makes it attractive for data centers requiring uninterrupted power. Founders exploring geothermal and behind-the-meter renewable solutions can target AI/data center operators seeking firm clean power.

🔨Headline: UK project to develop floating hydrogen hubs receives government backing

What Happened: ELIRE Infra and partners secured £1 million of UK government funding to design floating hydrogen power hubs that can combine hydrogen fuel cells with solar arrays and biofuel micro-turbines, providing up to 5 MW to decarbonize port operations. The feasibility program runs through March 2026; the consortium expects the first operational hub by 2028 and estimates the technology could cut 500,000 tons of CO₂ worldwide.

Why Founders Should Care: Hydrogen-powered microgrids could enable clean shore power at ports and marine logistics. Early-stage founders working on modular hydrogen systems, marine charging, or port electrification should monitor this project and look for pilot opportunities.

🔨Headline: EDF & UK Federation of Small Businesses launch digital hub for SMEs

What Happened: EDF and the Federation of Small Businesses announced a digital energy hub aimed at 150,000 small firms, offering resources, energy saving tips, vouchers and prize draws to encourage smart‑meter adoption and efficiency improvements.

Why Founders Should Care: The initiative signals opportunities for startups developing energy management software and services tailored to small businesses. Founders can partner with utilities or trade groups to reach SME customers.

🔨Headline: SPP says it cleared its interconnection queue; shifts to new planning

What Happened: Southwest Power Pool announced it has completed its plan to clear the generator interconnection backlog and is moving to its Consolidated Planning Process to speed future studies.

Why Founders Should Care: Faster queue processing in SPP can shorten timelines for storage, solar, wind, and data center adjacent projects across 14 central states.

🔨Headline: DOE commits $134M to FIRE & INFUSE fusion programs

What Happened: DOE announced $134M for the next round of FIRE Collaboratives and INFUSE awards to strengthen public-private fusion R&D and supply chains.

Why Founders Should Care: Non-dilutive funding + lab access for materials, magnets, lasers, and modeling—opportunities for hard tech startups and fusion-adjacent vendors.

🔨Headline: Tesla unveils “Megablock” 20 MWh integrated BESS

What Happened: At RE+, Tesla launched the Megablock: a 20 MWh, factory-integrated Megapack variant designed for rapid deployment with less onsite work.

Why Founders Should Care: Could compress EPC schedules and simplify interconnection packaging—useful for developers racing PPA/IRA milestones or serving data-center peaks.

🔨Headline: Google + SRP to co-fund non-lithium LDES pilots in AZ

What Happened: Google will help finance pilot projects on SRP’s grid to test non-lithium long-duration storage, sharing ops data to evaluate performance.

Why Founders Should Care: Continued signal of hyperscaler demand for 8–12-hour+ storage. Opens doors for LDES startups to validate tech with a creditworthy offtaker and utility host.

🔨Headline: “Made in America” & energy-density race dominate RE+

What Happened: Industry leaders at RE+ said storage developers are recalibrating around Federal rules (FEOC, tariff environment), with mixed impacts on costs and bankability. RE+ coverage highlights domestic-content strategies and an accelerating push to higher-density cells/containers across vendors.

Why Founders Should Care: It is a promising development that the industry can recalibrate quickly to the challenging policy headwinds.

📌 RFP Bulletin

Cyclotron Road Cohort 2026 – Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory/Activate Berkeley

• 📅 Key Dates: Application deadline Oct 28, 2025

• 🎯 Focus Areas: Energy and materials hardware innovations; fellows receive a living stipend, research funding, and entrepreneurial training through the DOE’s Lab‑Embedded Entrepreneurship Program.

• 🗺️ Region: US

• 🔗 RFP Link: https://cyclotronroad.lbl.gov/engage/how-to-apply/#:~:text=Applications%20for%20Cohort%202026%20will,timeline%20and%20how%20to%20apply

Activate Fellowship – Cohort 2026

• 📅 Key Dates: Application deadline Oct 28, 2025

• 🎯 Focus Areas: Two‑year fellowship supporting scientists and engineers commercializing hard‑tech and climate‑energy innovations; provides funding, lab access, and a network of mentors.

• 🗺️ Region: US

• 🔗 RFP Link: https://www.activate.org/apply

Crucible Accelerator – FedTech & NavalX Inland Empire Tech Bridge

• 📅 Key Dates: Application deadline Oct 24, 2025

• 🎯 Focus Areas: U.S. startups working on dual‑use technologies for the U.S. Navy; includes focus areas such as Directed Energy Technologies, Energy Dominance, water technologies, and other defense‑related energy systems

• 🗺️ Region: US

• 🔗 RFP Link: https://www.fedtech.io/accelerators/crucible-accelerator

• 🗒️ Our Notes: The 10-week program is no-cost and no-equity; participants receive mentorship from NavalX, connections to defense stakeholders, and a chance to develop pilot projects.

📝 Founder Briefing

Build for the AI-Spec: RE+ 2025’s Quiet Signal to Founders

RE+ 2025’s quiet headline: “AI/data-center spec” is becoming the default spec. Everywhere you looked, products and roadmaps were optimized for ultra-high availability, fast ramp rates, and islandable operation—features born for hyperscalers but now bleeding into C&I, municipal, and campus deals.

Example: Ampace’s new semi-solid LFP cell is built for high power (10C continuous) with UL 9540A verification, and they’re already packaging it into systems positioned explicitly for data-center backup and mission-critical loads—meaning ride-through, zero-incident safety records, and thermal-propagation controls are now baseline procurement checkboxes, not nice-to-haves. If you sell storage or microgrids, assume your buyer will ask “can this behave like a data-center asset?” and design accordingly.

Second, the density race is really a logistics and commissioning story. Vendors are racing past 6–8+ MWh per 20-ft enclosure with integrated PCS/EMS/HVAC. That means fewer containers per MW, fewer foundations and crane picks, simpler cable plans, and tighter commissioning windows—which directly protects IRR when interconnect timing and labor availability are uncertain.

You can see it across the stack: Canadian Solar’s modular FlexBank 1.0 (up to 8.36 MWh per block), Sungrow’s next-gen blocks with grid-forming modes, and “platform” offerings like Trina’s Elementa 2 Pro that ship as complete power blocks. For founders, the play is to productize BoS and commissioning: standard pad layouts, repeatable wiring harnesses, and insurance-friendly safety documentation as part of the SKU.

TL;DR for founders: sell to the AI-spec—high-power cells, grid-forming behavior, and integrated blocks that compress install/commissioning risk. Package density and safety as hard ROI (fewer boxes, fewer cranes, faster COD, lower insurance friction), and build repeatable, multi-site offerings that slot into constrained interconnects near load.

Continue the conversation in Slack by joining the #energy-briefing channel.

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