A Founder’s Guide to the First Cut of the IRA Rewrite

Hi there,

In this inaugural issue of the 9Zero Weekly Energy Briefing, we dissect the House GOP’s opening draft in what could become a sweeping rewrite of the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA). Dubbed “The One, Big, Beautiful Bill,” the budget proposal aims to raise $515B by sunsetting or repealing dozens of climate incentives—potentially jeopardizing the financial assumptions behind many early-stage clean energy projects. While this bill is far from final, founders should take it seriously: it sets the stage for hardline negotiations in the Senate and signals a more compressed timeline for leveraging IRA-era capital.

Meanwhile, FERC prepares to decide how quickly (or slowly) projects can interconnect to the grid under Order 2023 reforms, NRG is betting $12B on gas to feed AI-driven load growth, and a 90-day U.S.–China tariff pause gives solar and battery developers a momentary window of cost clarity.

Founders building in solar, hydrogen, storage, and advanced manufacturing need to get proactive—pull forward development timelines, diversify funding strategies, and prepare for a more volatile policy environment heading into summer.

🔦 Signals Worth Monitoring

📝 Founder Briefing

As of May 16, 2025—House Republicans have floated a budget‑reconciliation package—dubbed “The One, Big, Beautiful Bill”—that would generate an estimated ~$515 B in tax revenue from 2025 to 2035 by accelerating the sunset of Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) clean‑energy incentives, repealing several popular credits outright, and rescinding unspent program funds. The proposal is an opening bid: it must clear a split House, survive a very different Senate, and land on the President’s desk. Founders should model shorter runways for federal credits, front‑load projects that need the credits, and diversify capital stacks while tracking negotiations through July.

Opinion: There’s no way this is finalized by July 4th.

Key IRA Credits in the Crosshairs 

All IRA related credits have a China-style “prohibited foreign entity” test that disqualifies projects with ≥ 5 % supplier or licensing ties to those entities.

Claw backs beyond the IRA Credits 

• $27 B Greenhouse Gas Reduction Fund — unspent funds rescinded

• DOE Loan Programs Office — unspent authority rescinded

• Methane Emissions Reduction Program — funding removed

• Nine grant / rebate schemes (transmission financing, home electrification, etc.) — eliminated

Internal GOP Politics:

• House Republicans are navigating internal divisions. While conservative members advocate for significant deficit reduction and overhauls, some Republicans in swing districts are wary of deep cuts to popular programs and tax incentives, fearing it could impact their reelection chances.

• Texas Republican Chip Roy noted that approximately "20 plus issues" remained unresolved within the party as of last week.

• It is uncertain if the proposed strategy by the Ways and Means Committee-reducing some significant credits while eliminating others-will satisfy either the more moderate or the very conservative factions within the GOP.

Senate Resistance and Negotiation:

• Senate Republicans have already indicated that the House GOP's proposed rollbacks of clean energy credits will need changes to earn their support.

• Sen. John Hoeven (R-N.D.) called the House GOP pitch a "starting point" in negotiations, implying that alterations are expected when the bill reaches the Senate.

• Sen. Shelley Moore Capito (R-W.V.) suggested the House GOP's approach is like a "blanket" repeal and expects it to change, noting job creation around these tax credits.

Specific Credit Concerns from Senate Republicans:

• Phase-out of Clean Electricity Tax Credits (45Y/48E): Sen. Kevin Cramer (R-N.D.) warned that the proposed phase-out beginning in 2029 for technology-neutral clean electricity tax credits (impacting nuclear, wind, solar, batteries, geothermal) is "too short for truly new technologies" like advanced nuclear and geothermal, stating, "We’ll have to change that". He has proposed phasing out credits only for more mature technologies like wind and solar.

• Nuclear Power Production Tax Credit: The House bill phases this out starting in 2029. Sen. Cramer also expressed concern about this timeline for advanced nuclear.

• Clean Hydrogen Production Tax Credit: The House bill eliminates this for projects starting construction after this year. Sen. Cramer noted this was a concern, suggesting it might be modified.

A group of Senate Republicans previously warned their leadership that repealing IRA credits could undermine domestic manufacturing and potentially increase electricity prices.

📒 Founder Playbook and Takeaways

1. Frontload credit dependent projects

2. Diversify capital stacks—state green banks, CDFIs, catalytic philanthropy, utility programs.

3. Secure tax‑equity partners early if transferability sunsets and you didn’t work with partners prior to the IRA.

4. Engage trade associations (if it is advantageous to your organization) to keep sector‑specific data in front of Senate negotiators.

👀 What we’re continuing to watch

1. FERC interconnection reforms

2. Supply‑chain tariffs and exemptions

3. Funding increases in the nuclear industry

4. Data‑center load shaping energy infrastructure opportunities

5. The One, Big, Beautiful Bill advancing from the House Budget Committee

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