Policy Volatility Means Go Time for Founders

Hi there,

Converging policy moves point to a high pressure, 18-month sprint for U.S. clean energy builders. A July 7 executive order instructs Treasury and Interior to crack down on wind & solar PTC/ITC “loopholes,” while the freshly signed Big Beautiful Bill pulls the solar ITC sunset forward to December 31, 2025—triggering an installation rush reminiscent of 2019. Lenders still have appetite, as shown by Lydian’s $233M ERCOT BESS financing, but compliance costs are rising after EPA’s Gateway battery fire order. Abroad, the UK’s National Wealth Fund is seeding carbon capture transport, and Australia’s ARENA is dangling AUD 60 M for ultra-low-cost solar R&D.

🔦 Signals Worth Monitoring

🔨Headline: Trump signs Executive Order to terminate wind & solar tax credits

What Happened: The July 7 order directs Treasury and Interior to develop a plan for increased enforcement around PTC/ITC awards and it’s safe harbor rules. For more context read last week’s newsletter.

Why Founders Should Care: This executive order reinforces the request Republicans made to strictly enforce the PTC and ITC provisions in the One Big Beautiful Bill. Founders must monitor closely the changes to placed in service and safe harbor rules for start of construction, as it is likely traditional loopholes and flexibility in safe harbor rules may disappear.

🔨Headline: Solar ITC Sunset Triggers 18-Month Installation Rush

What Happened: The newly signed Big Beautiful Bill Act yanks forward the federal solar timeline: the 30% residential ITC disappears after Dec 31, 2025, and commercial/utility projects must start construction by the same date to keep the full credit. Any later starts lose the value. Expect an uptick like we saw in 2019.

Why Founders Should Care: Analysts expect a short lived boom as homeowners, corporates, and developers scramble to lock incentives before the cliff; Wood Mackenzie warns of a “2025-26 surge” followed by a drop off. Founders need to scale crews, safe harbor equipment, and fast-track permits now for projects dependent on the incentives.

🔨Headline: Minnesota PUC green-lights 475 MW of utility-scale solar + storage

What Happened: On July 9 commissioners approved Primergy’s 150 MW PV/50 MW BESS and Swift Energy’s 325 MW Iron Pine project, each contingent on final PPAs.

Why Founders Should Care: MISO queue movement plus state level support creates fresh offtake and EPC demand in an often overlooked market.

🔨Headline: UK backs first National Wealth Fund carbon capture project

What Happened: On July 7 the Treasury allocated £28.6 million to build a CO₂ pipeline linking Peak District cement & lime plants to under-sea storage.

Why Founders Should Care: Early public capital for transport-and-storage infrastructure sets precedent for blended CCS finance models that startups can piggyback on.

🔨Headline: Lydian Energy secures $233 million project financing for three Texas BESS

What Happened: ING and KeyBank closed debt on July 10 for 550 MW/1.2 GWh of storage in ERCOT.

Why Founders Should Care: Shows lenders are still comfortable with merchant-plus-hedge structures despite policy volatility; use deal comps to price debt and EPC contracts.

🔨Headline: EPA orders LS Power to fund Gateway battery-fire cleanup

What Happened: July 10 CERCLA settlement makes developer cover all costs after 2024 fire at 250 MW BESS near San Diego.

Why Founders Should Care: Expect tighter insurance, permitting, and community-engagement requirements for utility scale storage; factor compliance costs into bid models.

📌 RFP Bulletin

NYSERDA Bulk Energy Storage RFP

• 📅 Key Dates: Final RFP will be released July 30, 2025

• 🗞️ What was released this week: Extended timeline approved

• 🎯 Focus Areas: First of three 1,000 MW bulk energy storage procurements

• 🗺️ Region: New York

• 🔗 RFP Link: https://www.nyserda.ny.gov/All-Programs/Energy-Storage-Program/Developers-and-Contractors/Bulk-Storage-Incentives

RG&E Bulk Energy Storage RFP

• 📅 Key Dates: Phase I offers due August 4, 2025

• 🗞️ What was released this week: N/A

• 🎯 Focus Areas: Minimum 10 MW energy storage projects

• 🗺️ Region: Rochester

• 🔗 RFP Link: https://flexload.org/news/rge-rfp-bulk-energy-storage/

NYSERDA Maritime Hydrogen Transport Solicitation

• 📅 Key Dates: Proposals due October 1, 2025

• 🗞️ What was released this week: Funding opportunity announced July 9th

• 🎯 Focus Areas: Development of new or retrofitted maritime vessels for clean hydrogen transport, minimum 20,000 kg clean hydrogen per shipment, minimum 100 nautical miles delivery distance

• 🗺️ Region: New York State

• 🔗 RFP Link: https://www.nyserda.ny.gov/About/Newsroom/2025-Announcements/2025-07-09-NYSERDA-Announces-3-Million-To-Support-Maritime-Solutions-To-Transport-Clean-Hydrogen

ARENA Ultra Low-Cost Solar R&D Funding Round

• 📅 Key Dates: Launched July 11, 2025

• 🗞️ What was released this week: AUD 60 million funding round announced July 11, 2025 for innovative solar PV research and development

• 🎯 Focus Areas: Two streams with AUD 30 million each - Stream 1: Solar cells and modules (efficiency improvements, cost reduction, stability); Stream 2: Balance of systems, operations and maintenance (deployment cost reduction, O&M cost reduction, LCOE reduction, yield optimization)

• 🗺️ Region: Australia

• 🔗 RFP Link: https://renewablewatch.in/2025/07/11/arena-launches-aud-60-million-funding-round-for-low-cost-solar-rd/

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