Solar for All Money Moves While $14B in Projects Stall

Hi there,

Clean-energy momentum has flipped: U.S. developers have canceled or delayed >$14B in planned factories, batteries, and renewables so far in 2025, while only $4.2B of new projects were announced—a stark reversal from the 50-to-1 boom of prior years. At the same time, Washington has tightened export controls on nuclear components to China, and PJM now pledges to clear 63 GW of interconnection back-log within 18 months—both reshaping supply chains and go-to-market timelines. Yet the capital story isn’t closing; it’s relocating. EPA’s $7B Solar for All awards are locked in across 60 state and tribal programs, offering 0% loans, site-readiness grants, and revolving funds that should outlive any federal ITC rollback. Founders who pivot toward these state-run green-bank pools—and design community-solar or storage projects that serve ≥40% low-income subscribers—can replace shrinking tax equity with durable, low-cost financing. Expect longer diligence cycles from investors, but also faster queue times in PJM and fresh demand from U.S. utilities revisiting nuclear “re-starts.” Bottom line: model thinner federal incentives, thicken state and philanthropic stacks, and pre-qualify now for Solar for All RFPs landing as early as Q3 2025.

🔦 Signals Worth Monitoring

🔨Headline: Clean Energy Project Cancellations Reach $14B in 2025

What Happened: U.S. developers have scrapped or indefinitely delayed > $14 billion in clean-energy factories, battery plants, and renewables since January 1, while only $4.2 billion in new projects were announced over the same period. The cancellations cut roughly 10,000 planned jobs and reverse the 50-to-1 “announcement-over-cancellation” ratio seen in 2023–2024.

Why Founders Should Care: Expect longer diligence cycles from investors and lenders as they test whether your business model can withstand policy swings; be ready to show alternative revenue or offtake scenarios if federal incentives weaken and build extra buffer time into closing schedules. Explore modified community solar models to tap into philanthropic funds for projects in disadvantaged communities.

🔨Headline: U.S. Suspends Nuclear-Equipment Licenses to China

What Happened: The Commerce Department has halted export licenses that let suppliers such as Westinghouse and Emerson ship reactor pumps, valves and control systems to Chinese power plants, part of a wider trade-security clamp-down announced June 6.

Why Founders Should Care: Nuclear-tech startups now face sudden supply-chain gaps (e.g., specialty alloys, control electronics) and a shrinking Chinese market; diversify vendor lists, qualify domestic substitutes, and explore/prioritize new demand from U.S. utilities pursuing reactor “re-starts” and small-modular deployments.

🔨Headline: PJM Pledges to Clear 63 GW of Projects Within 18 Months

What Happened: PJM said 63 GW of “transition” projects will finish impact studies and reach agreement status by end of 2026, cutting historical queue times by more than half. Reuters reporting adds that automation and AI tools have already processed 140 GW since 2023, with another 63 GW progressing toward signed interconnection deals over the next two years. Utility Dive notes 51 high-priority projects (9.3 GW) just entered a fast-track Reliability Resource Initiative, underscoring PJM’s push for near-term capacity.

Why Founders Should Care: Faster queue clearance shortens time-to-revenue for storage, solar and hybrid developers; hardware and software vendors should ramp supply-chain planning now, while project finance teams can revisit schedules that previously assumed multi-year study delays.

📝 Founder Briefing

Solar for All Funding Flows and Green Bank Financing

The Solar for All awards have locked in $7 billion of low-cost capital for states, tribes, and green banks just as Congress moves to gut the federal clean-energy tax credits. For an energy-startup founder, the play shifts from chasing expiring federal ITC dollars to plugging directly into state-run revolving funds, 0%-loan pools and community solar bonuses that echo, but can outlive, the soon-to-be-repealed §48(e) low-income adder.

All 60 Solar for All awards are now under contract. Federal dollars should remain locked in even if Congress claws back GGRF funds. Programs are expected to revolve funds for 5–10 years, giving founders a durable low-cost capital source.

Fast Facts:

• Federal Solar for All Grants: The EPA’s Solar for All program is channeling $7 billion (via the Greenhouse Gas Reduction Fund) into 60 state, tribal, and multistate initiatives to deploy residential solar in low-income communities. These grants are expected to enable over 900,000 disadvantaged households nationwide to benefit from distributed solar, reducing bills and greenhouse gases.

• State Green Banks at the Helm: State-level green banks and financing authorities are central to deploying these funds. Many Solar for All awards are managed by state green finance entities that leverage the federal dollars with low-cost financing and private capital to maximize project impact. For example, Nevada’s nonprofit green bank is offering 0% interest loans and rebates for rooftop solar to low-income homeowners, using a $156 million Solar for All grant.

• California’s $250M Coalition: California secured nearly $250 million – among the largest awards – for a state Solar for All coalition led by the California Infrastructure and Economic Development Bank (IBank). With this funding, California plans to add at least 247 MW of solar and 425 MWh of storage in low-income areas (reaching ~158,000 households with ~29% utility bill savings). State agencies are currently coordinating program design and will soon solicit vendors and partners to implement zero-interest loans, community solar projects, and workforce training in disadvantaged communities.

• Tax Credit Uncertainty – Shift to State Financing: A draft budget bill passed by the U.S. House in May, 2025 would dramatically scale back or repeal federal clean energy tax credits, cutting off subsidies for projects not begun within 60 days of enactment. This pending threat has heightened the importance of state-level financing mechanisms – such as green bank loans, grants, and credit enhancements – to fill funding gaps if federal Investment Tax Credits (ITC) and other incentives are rolled back. In the absence of federal credits, Solar for All funds and green bank programs are poised to become a critical backstop for financing clean energy projects.

Where the Money Is Flowing

Play-by-Play on Financing Mechanics

• 0% or near-zero loans: Grants buy down interest and provide loss-reserve capital so private banks will lend on thin-margin projects (Nevada model).

• Revolving structures: Repayments recycle, so early projects secure a long-term credit line for developers (DC model).

• Site-readiness grants: California layers roof repair, code upgrade and transformer grants onto its SOMAH multifamily program—ideal for startups bundling solar + storage retrofits.

Revised Community Solar Models May Unlock Philanthropic Dollars in a Post-ITC World

§48(e)’s 20% ITC bonus (for projects that give ≥50% of benefits to LMI subscribers) disappears if the repeal bill becomes law. Yet its design inspired new state tariffs—notably Massachusetts’ SMART 3.0 straw proposal, which grants a $0.07 / kWh adder to any community-solar project that enrolls ≥40% LMI customers. California’s SFA community-solar rules mirror the same idea: 51% of each 5 MW project must serve low-income subscribers and guarantee 20% bill discounts.

Expect other states to copy this structure because it delivers equity outcomes and plugs the revenue gap left by a lost federal ITC. These state incentives may help projects in disadvantaged communities and attract donor capital to projects that require it.

California SFA Dollars & Strategies

• Workplan & Budget – $190.2M for new mid-scale community-solar, $25M for publicly owned-utility territories, $9.7M to bolster SOMAH for multifamily roofs; $8M to train 225 installers.

• Scale – CPUC estimates 50-100 MW of new community-solar plus 12 MW in POUs and 12 MW for SOMAH—enough to reach 30,000 households with ≥20% savings.

• Timeline – Stakeholder comments on program design closed May 8, 2025, CPUC final decision due Jan 1, 2026, project solicitations begin immediately after.

• Strategic angles for startups

  • Community-solar EPC or developer? Position 5 MW turnkey projects near IOU substations; include storage for higher scoring.

  • Software or billing platform? CPUC needs aggregation and low-income verification tools—submit before RFP drops.

  • Roofing & electrical trades? Site-readiness grants will pay for code upgrades; partner with SOMAH administrators.

📒 Founder Playbook and Takeaways

1. Track RFP calendars and pre-qualify as vendor or financing partner.

2. Explore ≥40–50% LMI share on community solar projects to capture state adders that survive the ITC repeal.

3. Model project IRRs with no federal ITC, but include 0% SFA or green-bank loan and any state incentives.

4. Recycle capital fast. Early repayment to green-bank revolvers unlocks repeat credit lines before competitors queue up.

5. Engage local workforce programs. Bids that guarantee prevailing wages and apprenticeships score higher under EPA’s “good jobs” scoring rubric.

6. Maintain optional tax-equity structures, but do not rely on them—treat any surviving ITC as upside.

👀 What we’re continuing to watch

• U.S. Senate work on “One Big, Beautiful Bill”. We’re monitoring for potential revisions to IRA Credits.

• Progress on allocation/RFPs in relation to Solar for All dollars.

• State-level programs or philanthropic dollars opening up to fill a potential gap left by federal ITCs being cut prematurely.

Continue the conversation in Slack by joining the #energy-briefing channel.

Need another signal on your dashboard? Reply and tell us.

If this saved you time, forward it to another founder or investor and invite them to join 9Zero.