Unlock the New RFP Tracker—Plus AI-Driven Grid Risks & NY’s Nuclear Pivot

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We’ve just launched a live Airtable RFP Tracker (Calendar View, List View), giving you a single dashboard of every opportunity we’re uncovering—expect continuous upgrades as we refine our search engine; if this saves you time, please forward the newsletter to one founder who should subscribe.

New York just ordered the New York Power Authority to build ≥1 GW of advanced nuclear—unlocking >$10B in procurement—while the DOE warns blackout risk could double by 2030 even as ERCOT data shows solar plus storage improving reliability; Deloitte’s forecast that AI data centers will jump from 4 GW today to 123 GW by 2035 signals a scramble for generation, cooling, and grid capacity.

Capital markets remain open: Sunrun’s oversubscribed $431M solar-lease ABS priced at a tight 6.15% coupon, and oil and gas majors tripled hydrogen startup deals last quarter; meanwhile China’s new export license requirement on LFP cathode know how is already pushing prices up beyond the tariffs—founders need diversified chemistries now.

🔦 Signals Worth Monitoring

🔨Headline: NY Pushes a New Nuclear Plant Upstate

What Happened: Gov. Kathy Hochul ordered the New York Power Authority to site and build a ≥1 GW reactor to cover rising electrification demand and keep the state on track for its 2040 clean-power goals.

Why Founders Should Care: Signals fresh state level appetite (and procurement dollars) for SMRs, reactor grade fuels, and nuclear construction talent—opening a beachhead in the nation’s fourth largest power market.

🔨Headline: Federal Grid Reliability Report Warns of 100% Increased Blackout Risk by 2030 | ERCOT Disagrees

What Happened: The Department of Energy released a report projecting doubled power outage risks by 2030, citing rising AI demand and renewable integration challenges. However, Texas grid operator ERCOT contradicted these findings, crediting solar and batteries for reducing blackout risks after adding 9,600 MW of new capacity in one year.

Why Founders Should Care: The conflicting assessments highlight regulatory uncertainty around renewable reliability, but ERCOT's real world data provides strong counterevidence for founders pitching grid stabilizing technologies like storage and demand response.

🔨Headline: AI Data Centers Could Require 123 GW by 2035, Says Deloitte

What Happened: Deloitte projects US AI data center power demand will grow from 4 GW in 2024 to 123 GW by 2035—a thirtyfold increase. Individual data centers are planning up to 2 GW capacity, with some 50,000-acre campuses potentially consuming 5 GW.

Why Founders Should Care: Massive demand growth creates opportunities across the energy value chain, from generation and storage to grid infrastructure and cooling technologies. The compressed timeline requires rapid scaling of solutions.

🔨Headline: Sunrun Raises $431M via Solar Lease Asset Backed Security (ABS) at 6.15% Coupon

What Happened: The residential solar giant priced its 14th public securitization—$331 M Class A-1 and $100 M Class A-2 notes—oversubscribed at a 240 bp spread.

Why Founders Should Care: Capital markets appetite for distributed solar cash flows remains healthy, signaling room for similar ABS or project finance structures across DERs and community solar.

🔨Headline: Oil & Gas Majors Triple Hydrogen Startup Deals in Q2

What Happened: Global Corporate Venturing reports that fossil fuel companies executed 3× more hydrogen related investments than a year earlier—backing electrolyzer, LOHC, and white hydrogen plays.

Why Founders Should Care: Strategic capital is rotating into hydrogen more aggressively; landing a corporate VC anchor can derisk scale up and provide grant market access.

📌 RFP Bulletin

Maine PUC Renewable Energy Projects RFP

• 📅 Key Dates: RFP launched 15 Jul; bids due 25 Jul

• 🎯 Focus Areas: New utility-scale renewables (wind, solar, storage) on brownfields/PFAS-impacted land

• 🗺️ Region: Maine, USA

• 🔗 RFP Link: https://www.maine.gov/energy/news/press-release-maine-geo-statement-puc-rfp-renewable-energy-projects-july-2025

Sullivan County NY Waste-to-Energy Draft RFP

• 📅 Key Dates: 22 Aug, Comments due

• 🎯 Focus Areas: WTE facility siting, thermal conversion tech

• 🗺️ Region: New York, USA

• 🔗 RFP Link: https://www.sullivanny.gov/Departments/Purchasing/RequestforProposals

California Energy Commission GFO-24-312 – Advanced Grid Technology Acceleration Projects

• 📅 Key Dates: Due Sep 5 2025

• 🎯 Focus Areas: DER optimization, long-duration storage controls, AI-based grid analytics, cybersecurity for OT networks. Awards typically $1–5 M grants (non-dilutive).

• 🗺️ Region: California (state R&D grant, but pilots may be located anywhere in CA IOU territory).

• 🔗 RFP Link: https://www.energy.ca.gov/solicitations/2025-06/gfo-24-312-advanced-grid-technology-acceleration-projects

The Nature Conservancy – Northeast Climate & Energy Program Analysis RFP

• 📅 Key Dates: Proposal packages due Jul 30 2025

• 🎯 Focus Areas: Offshore wind integration, storage siting, community benefits, and equitable cost allocation across the Northeast grid.

• 🗺️ Region: U.S. Northeast (ME→NJ).

• 🔗 RFP Link: https://www.nature.org/en-us/about-us/where-we-work/united-states/maryland-dc/northeast-climate-and-energy-rfp

📝 Founder Briefing

China’s LFP Export Clampdown

Beijing’s July 15 2025 decision to add lithium-iron-phosphate (LFP) cathode production know how to its restricted export technology list marks the first time core battery IP has required an export license, signaling a strategic turn from raw material controls to process controls. The move caps two years of tightening: individual Chinese firms began self suspending overseas sales of lithium processing kit after draft rules surfaced in early 2025, chilling third party tech transfers. Parallel U.S. “foreign entity of concern” (FEOC) rules meanwhile start phasing out Chinese battery components from clean vehicle and storage tax credits in 2025, raising the stakes for domestic supply.

What to Expect

• Pricing turbulence. U.S. utility scale storage saw its sharpest cost spike since 2021 in Q2 as buyers scrambled to lock inventory ahead of the restriction and Trump-era China tariffs.

• Supply realignment. Developers are pivoting away from automotive demand into stationary storage, repurposing U.S. EV battery plants for grid projects to hedge against constrained LFP imports.

• Deployment risk. The Energy Information Administration still forecasts U.S. battery capacity to nearly double by end-2025, but analysts warn 2026 installations could contract if licensing delays persist.

• Policy echo chamber. China’s broader pattern of using export controls—from graphite to rare earths—underscores the likelihood of further measures if trade tensions escalate.

Playbook for Founders Impacted By This

• Secure Diversified Supply

  • Lock multi-year offtake agreements with emerging US cathode plants; build dual chemistry optionality (sodium-ion) into product roadmaps.

• Localize IP Early

  • Where feasible, joint-venture or license Chinese LFP know how before export licenses tighten further

• Monitor License Issuance Data

  • Track approval timelines and build buffers in your construction schedules; early applicants will learn the real lead times first.

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